- Problems Studying
the Lunar Effect
Perhaps one of the first
things that you notice about these studies is that the results are inconsistent.
Some studies show that a particular behavior will occur more often during
the full moon and other studies show no relationship between behavior
and the full moon. This finding alone casts doubt on the theory that
the full moon influences behavior. It may also be that experiments have
been designed differently. For example, some studies include "full
moon" behaviors that occur a few days before and after the full
moon, while other studies include only those behaviors within a single
day of the full moon.
Selective Memory?
Because
many people believe that the full moon can affect behavior, experiments
must be designed carefully to eliminate the possibility that people's
beliefs will influence the data. For example, if people know that they
are in an experiment which studies how the moon affects behavior, they
may act in ways that change the results. It is possible that people have
a "selective memory" for strange events that happen on the full
moon; they remember strange incidents that occur during a full moon, but
forget when these same things happen at other times.
- Correlation Does
NOT Mean Causation
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- It is also important
to remember that studies that examine relationships between behavior
and the phase of the moon determine only correlations. These
types of studies determine if one set of numbers varies in a
reliable manner with another set of numbers. If they do, then
it can be said that a relationship exists.
-
The
existence of a relationship between two "variables" DOES
NOT mean
that one variable causes the other variable. For example, if
you looked for a relationship between the number of points scored by
a basketball team and the number of books checked out of a library on
different days, you might find a significant relationship. This doesn't
mean that the score of basketball games causes people to check out library
books or that checking out library books causes the basketball team
to score more points. The reason why these two activities vary in a
similar fashion is completely unknown and untested. It just happens
that the two measurements vary in a related fashion.
-
In
the basketball/library book example, the relationship could be
caused by many things, maybe even by the weather. Maybe there was a
lot of rain when the basketball scores and library books were counted.
Perhaps the rain caused the basketball players to practice more (resulting
in more points scored) and caused more people to visit the library (resulting
in more checked-out books).
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- Some experiments
do show that on days with a full moon there is more abnormal
behavior. However, many of these studies have been criticized
because they were not performed properly. For example, some of
these experiments:
- tested only a
few people over a short period of time.
- did not analyze
the data with proper statistical tests.
- did not take into
account the day of the week on which the full moon occurred
- did not take into
account whether the full moon occurred on a holiday or a weekend.
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