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I
was born in Chicago in 1927, the only child of Morris and Mildred Markowitz
who owned a small grocery store. We lived in a nice apartment, always
had enough to eat, and I had my own room. I never was aware of the Great
Depression.
Growing up, I enjoyed baseball and tag football in the nearby empty lot
or the park a few blocks away, and playing the violin in the high school
orchestra. I also enjoyed reading. At first, my reading material consisted
of comic books and adventure magazines, such as The Shadow , in addition
to school assignments. In late grammar school and throughout high school
I enjoyed popular accounts of physics and astronomy. In high school I
also began to read original works of serious philosophers. I was particularly
struck by David Hume's argument that, though we release a ball a thousand
times, and each time, it falls to the floor, we do not have a necessary
proof that it will fall the thousand-and-first time. I also read The Origin
of Species and was moved by Darwin's marshalling of facts and careful
consideration of possible objections.
From high school, I entered the University of Chicago and took its two
year Bachelor's program which emphasized the reading of original materials
where possible. Everything in the program was interesting, but I was especially
interested in the philosophers we read in a course called OII: Observation,
Interpretation and Integration.
Becoming an economist
was not a childhood dream of mine. When I finished the Bachelor's degree
and had to choose an upper division, I considered the matter for a short
while and decided on Economics. Micro and macro were all very fine, but
eventually it was the "Economics of Uncertainty" which interested me--in
particular, the Von Neumann and Morgenstern and the Marschak arguments
concerning expected utility; the Friedman-Savage utility function; and
L. J. Savage's defense of personal probability. I had the good fortune
to have Friedman, Marschak and Savage among other great teachers at Chicago.
Koopmans' course on activity analysis with its definition of efficiency
and its analysis of efficient sets was also a crucial part of my education.
At Chicago I was invited to become one of the student members of the Cowles
Commission for Research in Economics. If anyone knows the Cowles Commission
only by it influence on Economic and Econometric thought, and by the number
of Nobel laureates it has produced, they might imagine it to be some gigantic
research center. In fact it was a small but exciting group, then under
the leadership of its director, T. Koopmans, and its former director,
J. Marschak.
When it was time to choose a topic for my dissertation, a chance conversation
suggested the possibility of applying mathematical methods to the stock
market. I asked Professor Marschak what he thought. He thought it reasonable,
and explained that Alfred Cowles himself had been interested in such applications.
He sent me to Professor Marshall Ketchum who provided a reading list as
a guide to the financial theory and practice of the day.
The basic concepts of portfolio theory came to me one afternoon in the
library while reading John Burr Williams's Theory of Investment Value.
Williams proposed that the value of a stock should equal the present value
of its future dividends. Since future dividends are uncertain, I interpreted
Williams's proposal to be to value a stock by its expected future dividends.
But if the investor were only interested in expected values of securities,
he or she would only be interested in the expected value of the portfolio;
and to maximize the expected value of a portfolio one need invest only
in a single security. This, I knew, was not the way investors did or should
act. Investors diversify because they are concerned with risk as well
as return. Variance came to mind as a measure of risk. The fact that portfolio
variance depended on security covariances added to the plausibility of
the approach. Since there were two criteria, risk and return, it was natural
to assume that investors selected from the set of Pareto optimal risk-return
combinations.
I left the University
of Chicago and joined the RAND Corporation in 1952. Shortly thereafter,
George Dantzig joined RAND. While I did not work on portfolio theory at
RAND, the optimization techniques I learned from George (beyond his basic
simplex algorithm which I had read on my own) are clearly reflected in
my subsequent work on the fast computation of mean-variance frontiers
(Markowitz (1956) and Appendix A of Markowitz (1959)). My 1959 book was
principally written at the Cowles Foundation at Yale during the academic
year 1955-56, on leave from the RAND Corporation, at the invitation of
James Tobin. It is not clear that Markowitz (1959) would ever have been
written if it were not for Tobin's invitation.
My article on "Portfolio
Selection" appeared in 1952. In the 38 years since then, I have worked
with many people on many topics. The focus has always been on the application
of mathematical or computer techniques to practical problems, particularly
problems of business decisions under uncertainty. Sometimes we applied
existing techniques; other times we developed new techniques. Some of
these techniques have been more "successful" than others, success being
measured here by acceptance in practice.
In 1989, I was awarded the Von Neumann Prize in Operations Research Theory
by the Operations Research Society of America and The Institute of Management
Sciences. They cited my works in the areas of portfolio theory, sparse
matrix techniques and the SIMSCRIPT programming language. I have written
above about portfolio theory. My work on sparse matrix techniques was
an outgrowth of work I did in collaboration with Alan S. Manne, Tibor
Fabian, Thomas Marschak, Alan J. Rowe and others at the RAND Corporation
in the 1950s on industry-wide and multi-industry activity analysis models
of industrial capabilities. Our models strained the computer capabilites
of the day. I observed that most of the coefficients in our matrices were
zero; i.e. , the nonzeros were "sparse" in the matrix, and that typically
the triangular matrices associated with the forward and back solution
provided by Gaussian elimination would remain sparse if pivot elements
were chosen with care. William Orchard-Hayes programmed the first sparse
matrix code. Since then considerable work has been done on sparse matrix
techniques, for example, on methods of selecting pivots and of storing
the nonzero elements. Sparse matrix techniques are now standard in large
linear programming codes.
During the 1950s I decided, as did many others, that many practical problems
were beyond analytic solution, and that simulation techniques were required.
At RAND I participated in the building of large logistics simulation models;
at General Electric I helped build models of manufacturing plants. One
problem with the use of simulation was the length of time required to
program a detailed simulator. In the early 1960s, I returned to RAND for
the purpose of developing a programming language, later called SIMSCRIPT,
which reduced programming time by allowing the programmer to describe
(in a certain stylized manner) the system to be simulated rather than
describing the actions which the computer must take to accomplish this
simulation. The original SIMSCRIPT compiler was written by B. Hausner;
its manual by H. Karr who later co-founded a computer software company,
CACI, with me. Currently SIMSCRIPT II.5 is supported by CACI and still
has a fair number of users.
I am sorry I cannot
acknowledge all the people I have worked with over the last 38 years and
describe what it was we accomplished. As each of these people know, I
often considered work to be play, and derived great joy from our collaboration.
From Les Prix Nobel
1990.
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