|
Newton
Stewart is a town of two thousand people in the beautiful centre of Galloway,
in the southwest of Scotland. My father came there in 1934, newly married,
to be a teller in one of the six banks. In 1936 I was born, in a cottage
across the river in the neighbouring village of Minnigaff. Three years
later we moved to Newton Stewart proper, my brother was born, and, coincidentally,
my conscious life began. Though later, about 1950, we moved to the coastal
village of Port William, eighteen miles south, I went to school in Newton
Stewart, travelling latterly by the school bus. While at primary school
I was apparently quite quick at mental arithmetic, and also acquired glasses.
If you need glasses it is hard to enjoy football (association football
is the main sport in the area). Without them, I was not good at guessing
where the ball was. That, and various childhood illnesses, gave me time
to read, which suited me fine. To tell the truth, I would not have been
very good at football anyway. I once took a catch in the annual cricket
match.
To my relief, I passed the "control", the examination at age eleven to
decide who could go on to the high school, the Douglas Ewart. In these
days there were prizes every year. With much parental encouragement, I
tried to win them, and as far as I remember was rather successful. But
I must have had some sense that this drive to win is somewhat ignoble.
When a friend beat me in chemistry I recollect being scolded at home for
accepting defeat with equanimity. By the age of fourteen I had acquired
a strange enthusiasm for mathematics, having managed to acquire a book
called Teach Yourself Calculus, and done so. When he found out, the head
mathematics teacher somehow gave me individual tuition during classes,
and I raced ahead. At the same time the music teacher, who was also my
piano teacher, provided books like Hogben's Mathematics for the Million.
In the school bus, I tried to read my mathematics teacher's university
books. This was much more fun than trying to come top. When asked by the
Rector (the headmaster) what I wanted to do in life, I gave the obvious
answer: be a professor of mathematics. Mr Geddie sounded appropriately
sceptical.
In Scotland, unlike England, one does a wide range of subjects all through
school, and for the final school examination: English, mathematics, science,
French, Latin, history, in my case. Oddly enough this examination is taken
in the penultimate year, at age sixteen, and the final school year is
devoted to odds and ends, except that there were two special mathematics
papers that one could do in that final year. I took them a year early,
successfully, catching the attention of the inspector from the Scottish
Education Department who suggested I should try for the Cambridge scholarship.
No doubt we had heard of Cambridge, but none of us, teachers, friends
or relatives, knew what this mysterious scholarship examination was, nor
why going to Cambridge might be such a Good Thing. It emerged that Cambridge
was not for young Scots, in the normal way, since the government grants
provided to pay university fees and some subsistence, could not be used
outside Scotland (the English, though, were allowed to come to Scottish
universities, and many did). The one exception was the scholarship. If
someone won a scholarship to Oxford or Cambridge in the college scholarship
examinations, a supplementary grant would then be given. In Glasgow and
Edinburgh there were schools that prepared some of their pupils for entrance
to Oxford and Cambridge, but that was another world.
The examination was held in December. The suggestion to take it was made,
I believe, in June. We were not aware that in English schools those preparing
for the examinations would specialize for two or three years, doing, for
example, nothing but mathematics. We, my mathematics teacher and I, got
past examination papers and tried to do them. It was exciting, but even
in late November I found I could not always solve all the questions in
the time available. We did not know that rather less was expected. There
was no immediate happy outcome. The weekend I should have gone to Cambridge
to take the examination I was rushed to the nearest serious hospital,
seventy miles away, with peritonitis. In 1954, I went to Edinburgh, which
I did not mind then, and do not regret now.
Somehow I argued
my way into starting the Edinburgh mathematics course in its second year,
thus shortening the normal four-year Scottish degree to three years. Also,
and I suspect this was the more remarkable achievement, I persuaded the
authorities to let me take philosophy in my first year. It was regarded
as morally dangerous to take philosophy at the beginning of one's university
course, but I had a cousin who was doing philosophy at Glasgow (and still
is); and on long country walks he had infected me with it. I did not do
any other philosophy courses at university (though I went to some lectures
later in Cambridge), but that remained an important basis for much of
what I tried to do later in a subject that used to be part of the Moral
Sciences tripos in Cambridge, economics.
In those years at Edinburgh, mathematics was easy, and needed little time.
Having obtained a number of individually small scholarships through various
examinations, I had just a little more money than the minimum, and could
afford the new Penguin books as they came out. The university library
had lovely open shelves and easy access. I could afford to go to some
concerts, which were cheap at that time, and the National Gallery of Scotland
is a wonderful introduction to painting. There were plenty of university
societies too, and being far from home I threw myself into them too, debating,
philosophy, but not then much politics; and endless talk in Cowan House,
a long disappeared hall of residence with, I think, selective admission.
At any rate, it was a great group of people.
Although mathematics
then seemed easy, I am sure I was getting careless. But as usual I was
lucky, and got the Napier medal in the final examination. Earlier that
year, I had, at last, taken the Cambridge scholarship examination, as
had a series of other Edinburgh mathematics students, and thereby earned
a further grant to go on and do yet another undergraduate degree. In 1957,
at the age of twenty-one, I left Scotland, like many before and since,
an excited member of the Scottish diaspora, with my birthday present,
a typewriter. In the summer, I had taught myself to touch-type.
The mathematics undergraduate degree at Cambridge had three parts, or
triposes. For a degree it was sufficient to do Part I and Part II: the
famous "wranglers" are those who are in the first class in Part II. The
best mathematicians did Part II in their second year and then Part III
in their third. Those of us who came from Edinburgh (and other universities
whose preparation was deemed insufficient for an immediate plunge into
research) did Part II in the first year, Part III in the second. In Trinity,
the College I had joined, two of us from Edinburgh enjoyed being taught
together by some of the best mathematicians one could hope to find. It
was exciting, and not yet too difficult. We duly became wranglers.
In Cambridge you can go to lectures in any subject, without formality.
I took full advantage. In the summer I wrote a mathematical essay for
a prize. The subject I chose was game theory, and I didn't make much of
it. My Edinburgh friend got the prize. Then came Part III mathematics,
with subjects on the borders of current research. That was hard, and there
was a lot I wanted to do besides mathematics. The result was good enough
to allow me to go on to research had I wanted to do so, but I did not.
Social science, perhaps even sociology, beckoned. Peter Swinnerton-Dyer,
in mathematics, guided me to Piero Sraffa, in economics. In any case it
was indeed economics I wanted to do, because I kept discussing it with
economist friends, and they didn't make sense to me; and because poverty
in what were then called the underdeveloped countries, seemed to me what
really mattered in the world, and that meant economics.
How could I possibly get finance for a third undergraduate degree? Fortunately
Cambridge had an arrangement whereby you did a part of the final undergraduate
examination in one year, called it the Diploma in Economics, and treated
it as an initial year of graduate work. Still, money had to be found.
All students in a Cambridge college have a Tutor, who looks after them
in a general way, administratively not academically. Each Tutor has many
students. Somehow mine managed to get the Department of Scientific and
Industrial Research to give me a three year award to do a Ph.D. in economics.
They had an interesting incentive contract: I did not have to take a Ph.D.,
but if I did not, then I had to write a thesis of equivalent length. I
didn't enquire what the sanctions were, I just got on and did it. Somehow
the examiners at the end of the first year were fooled into thinking I
knew some economics. Economics takes a while to learn, even if much of
it is in a way quite simple. It is simple to be wrong as well as to be
right, and it is none too easy to distinguish between them.
David Champernowne, newly returned from a Chair in Oxford to a Cambridge
readership and a teaching fellowship in Trinity, was my first teacher.
In Oxford people did not appreciate science fiction and computers, so
he had returned to what he regarded as the centre of economics. Being
taught on one's own or with one other seems extraordinarily wasteful and
expensive, but I have benefited immensely from it, and still enjoy doing
it as a teacher. If it works, it is not usually by the simple transmission
of information. David started by telling me to read Keynes's General Theory,
I think because he had just been re-reading it. That may not have been
the best advice, but it did no great harm, and one day I hope to finish
it. Needless to say, I also relied a great deal on fellow students, who
in effect taught me most generously. They were cooperative times. My reading
remained haphazard, and the lectures and seminars of the notable Cambridge
names, Kahn, Kaldor and Joan Robinson were highly idiosyncratic, but it
was a stimulating time.
Richard Stone was my official supervisor, to guide my research, and as
soon as the first year was over he involved me in the Growth Project that
he was beginning, a project to simulate realistically the long-term growth
of an economy, particularly the UK. The guiding star was indicative planning,
a forgotten notion. Stone pointed me to Ramsey on optimal saving (an interest
of David Champernowne's too) and at some point in all this I had discovered
Samuelson and mathematical economics. I tried writing research papers,
which were largely rubbish. Dick passed something, I forget what, to Frank
Hahn, just lured to Cambridge by Kaldor. Frank somehow saw merit amid
the rubbish, and was encouraging. He became another unofficial supervisor
and great mentor. I ought to have been feeling lost and confused that
year, but I was engaged and happy, and got married to Gill, just finishing
her teacher training in Cambridge. So we set off to Scotland for a honeymoon,
with my typewriter, and I set about doing a Fellowship dissertation for
Trinity. Considering I had made no discoveries, it seems a daft enterprise.
Oddly enough I still have a copy: Contributions to a theory of economic
planning. Without looking inside, I am sure there were no contributions.
It was submitted for the October competition, and was unsuccessful. I
remember no disappointment, just surprise when I learned that the thesis
had not been so far from success. Writing a couple of hundred pages was
a great way of learning anyway. There was little mathematics in it.
I was thinking about planning, which was the main theme of Stone's Growth
Project. Having a mathematical culture, I suppose I expected that at some
point there would be a real idea, an inspiration, and one day in November
1961 it came. Uncertainty seemed to me unduly neglected, so I tried to
think about how the amount of uncertainty should affect the optimal rate
of saving in an economy. I thought of a neat way of modelling the question.
Contrary to what everyone else seemed to think (then), I showed that quite
commonly, greater uncertainty is a reason for saving more, not less. I
started using Wiener processes and discovered the Ito calculus for myself.
Of course it would have been more sensible to learn the techniques that
were already known, but I didn't know where to find them.
The thesis could
have been finished at the end of that academic year, but two things happened.
Nicholas Kaldor wanted a research assistant to help with writing a paper
on growth, a continuation of a notable series. David Champernowne put
us together. Nicky was no mathematician, so I was what he needed. In the
end he generously made me a co-author. The paper is a bit mixed up, but
our long discussions were a wonderful experience, as he tried to make
sense of economic growth, and I tried to make sense of him. For a month
or so, it was full time, and the thesis languished.
Then Amartya Sen suggested and arranged that I go to India for a year,
with the India Project run by Paul Rosenstein-Rodan for the MIT Center
for International Studies. Rosie said I must first go to MIT for the summer
"to acclimatize", and Gill and I had our only period of mild impoverishment
living for three months in a basement in Somerville, Massachusetts, followed
by a remarkably and inappropriately luxurious eight months in India. But
it was a good summer: I met Paul Samuelson and Bob Solow, and gave a seminar
at MIT on optimum growth under uncertainty. They spotted a mistake (which
had not been in the thesis, I must add) but were nevertheless encouraging.
Probably I am mistake-prone, but have learned to live with it. In September,
we continued on our way to New Delhi.
It was never clear quite what I was supposed to be doing on the India
Project, particularly after an initial period helping with a rightly abortive
input-output exercise. I thought a lot, and wrote many little papers,
particularly about investment appraisal, and efficiency wages. Some years
later I remembered that I had worked out the theory of efficiency-wage
equilibria in 1962 on our way from MIT to India, on the long, long flight
from San Francisco to Tokyo, and wrote it up as a paper in the early seventies,
a paper I still rather like. The work on investment appraisal, including
ideas about uncertainty, led on, after a lapse of years, to work with
Ian Little on criteria for cost-benefit analysis in developing countries.
I fear I did not do as much for the Planning Commission as had been hoped
or intended. I learned an immense amount, both from the country and from
its many fine economists. In these days Jagdish Bhagwati, T. N. Srinivasan
and Sukhomoy Chakravarty were all there too, and Amartya Sen was about
to return.
Before I had left
Cambridge, Nuffield College, Oxford offered me a research fellowship for
which I had not applied. Trinity retaliated almost instantly by offering
me a teaching fellowship in economics to be taken up in 1963, when Sen
would be leaving to return to India. I accepted the Trinity job. It seems
ridiculous, but I have never had a job I applied for. When I do apply,
I don't get it, but that is a small sample. While in India, I was told
I had been given a university assistant lectureship. That meant I would
not have to do so much individual teaching in Trinity, and would have
to give lectures.
When we got back from India, two things had to be done. It was time to
write the thesis, and to have a child. We did. Catriona was born in a
College flat in Trinity Street, and I cooked duck a l'orange for the only
time in my life since Gill couldn't very well cook the celebratory dinner.
The thesis was duly submitted in September 1963, on Optimum Accumulation
Under Uncertainty. Wonderfully, Ken Arrow was visiting Cambridge that
year, and was one of my two examiners. He tried very hard to find the
mistakes and failed. But I have still never been able to solve the main
problem the thesis addressed, at least to my satisfaction. I published
only one small paper on the subject, much later.
Ken Arrow had already been thinking about investment choices under uncertainty,
and I found that what I had worked out in India had already been done
better. Bob Solow was there that year too. Growth and capital were the
main subjects of discussion. I wrote up, and greatly improved, the easy
part of the thesis, without uncertainty, at much the same time that Cass,
Koopmans and others were developing optimum growth theory beyond the Ramsey
level. Now writing slowed to a crawl, whether because of the demands of
teaching, or rising standards; and because I could not prove what I guessed
about the uncertainty case. Speaking of crawl, Fiona was born in 1966.
Fortunately the stimulus of teaching took me in some new directions, as
I thought increasingly about general welfare economics, conceived as a
general theory of economic policy. An examination question about optimal
taxes caused immense trouble among the examiners, since Joan Robinson
would not believe the result. It should not have been in an examination
paper, of course, but it was the beginning, on my side, of the work on
optimal taxation that Peter Diamond and I did in the next few years, after
he came on a six-month visit to Cambridge. I followed the main principle
for academic success: get a good co-author (and also the second: get another).
The still-continuing collaboration with Peter has been at the centre of
the work, his influence on the sole-authored papers immense too.
That in turn led to thinking about nonlinear tax schedules, and what we
still call optimal income tax theory, which I discuss in the Prize Lecture.
But that step, towards a more general conception of relationships between
principal and agent in economic contracts, came after I had essentially
left Cambridge. Oxford had a professorship of economics, which had to
be in mathematical economics or in econometrics. David Champernowne had
held it. Now it was vacant and proving hard to fill. They decided that
some baby-snatching was in order, and offered it to me in 1968. At that
time, thirty-two seemed quite young for a professor. Cambridge was still
a place to be, with James Meade and Dick Stone, and good new people, often
recruited by Dick; but Frank Hahn had already left, and Cambridge was
increasingly suffering from shrill doctrinal, almost religious, squabbles
(mainly then with the rest of the economic world) . It was time to go.
I briefly toyed with MIT and LSE, both standing higher than Oxford, but
we were small-town people. At that time, Ian Little, at Nuffield, had
already got me to do a manual on Cost Benefit Analysis with him. Paradoxically,
the Oxford choice probably meant I would not specialize too severely in
mathematical economics. It also meant that I would deal entirely with
graduate students. It was immensely helpful to have that simplification
in what had become a too complex academic life.
In the intervening sabbatical term at MIT, between Cambridge and Oxford,
work on nonlinear incentive relationships began. That year, or the next,
the first version of the optimum income tax paper went round, but mathematical
justifications took another year and too many pages. In the end much of
the rigorous justification was published only many years later. I never
learned not to publish in a book: it can take a very long time to appear.
Of course it can be quick too. The mimeoed version kept vanishing from
the Nuffield library, so at least it was being read, or looked at.
Already several
superb PhD students had come to me as supervisor, for example, Azizur
Rahman Khan and Partha Dasgupta, and I had taught David Newbery as an
undergraduate. From that time on I found myself almost invariably with
at least one, often several research students of the highest class. The
Oxford environment seemed to make that happen. I have always supervised
research much more diverse than what I do myself, and by no means all
of them worked in the principal/agent or welfare economics field. Some
became colleagues. It was only quite loosely a school of optimal taxes
and welfare and incentives. I am proud that in due course industrial economics
and game theory flourished in Oxford. Even they are not unconnected with
incentive and contract theory, but there is no doctrinal connection, no
common catechism. I have long lost count of the number of my students
who hold full professorships, but I like to think they are numerous as
well as able.
There came a time when it seemed best to make a last change, to seek new
stimulus. In November 1993, Gill died, five years after cancer was first
diagnosed. Catriona and Fiona had grown, married, and gone. A Cambridge
Chair was offered, and in 1995 I moved, and moved into Trinity. There
is still work to be done.
When that curious
English publication, Who's Who, first asked me for an entry, my normal
inclination to brighten up dark corners led me to list as my recreations
"playing the piano, reading detective stories and other forms of mathematics,
travelling, listening". I did not suppose that anyone would have much
reason to read it, but in these last two months it seems many have, and,
looking at it again, I find no reason to change it, though I should now
add other reading and computer programming. Everything is to be interpreted
there in the broadest sense, as at least those (few) who have heard me
play the piano may agree.
From Les Prix Nobel
1996.
|